Robinhood stock (NASDAQ: HOOD) plunged over 10% on Monday, marking the stock’s worst performance in the S&P 500 as a brutal crypto market sell-off collided with fading activity in the company’s prediction markets.
The brokerage giant, which surged 188% in 2025, is now down 40% from its October peak of $153, as investors confront the reality that Robinhood’s fortunes rise and fall with retail trading appetite and cryptocurrency prices.
The slide extended premarket weakness into a severe session decline, with trading volume swelling 40% above average as sellers overwhelmed bids.
Bitcoin’s weekend collapse triggered a cascade of losses across retail trading platforms.
The digital asset plummeted from $83,800 Friday to a nine-month low of $74,570, erasing over $200 billion in crypto market value and forcing $2 billion in liquidations across leveraged positions.
That bloodbath directly hit Robinhood’s wallet.
In 2025, cryptocurrency transaction revenue surged 200% to $268 million per quarter, becoming the platform’s fastest-growing revenue driver and accounting for roughly 40% of total transaction revenue.
Robinhood stock: Crypto squeeze and seasonal prediction-market fade
Robinhood’s sensitivity to crypto weakness is extreme.
With a beta of 2.45, meaning the stock swings 2.5 times harder than the broad market, HOOD is essentially a leveraged bet on retail risk appetite, not on the strength of its underlying business.
Piper Sandler, which maintains an Overweight rating with a $155 price target, flagged three near-term headwinds: softer crypto trading volumes, the end of the NFL season denting prediction-market revenue.
The prediction-markets angle is crucial.
Robinhood launched football contract trading in August 2025 and rapidly became the fastest-growing segment.
CEO Vlad Tenev told investors the business was “growing rapidly,” with 2.5 billion contracts traded in October alone. But football season ends in February.
Robinhood is banking on the NBA and MLB to fill the void, but seasonal revenue vacuums historically trigger valuation resets in fintech stocks.
Valuation collapse amid profit-taking
The broader backdrop matters. After a 188% rally in 2025, the stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 44 and a price-to-sales of 23, both well above historical averages.
Many institutional investors are also taking profits.
Without near-term catalysts, the stock is vulnerable to continued selling.
November operating data showed trading volumes sank 37% in equities, 28% in options, and 12% in crypto.
Robinhood’s customer acquisition pace is slowing, and a Connecticut regulatory cease-and-desist order over unauthorized gambling language adds headline risk.
Robinhood releases fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings on February 10th after market close, with CEO Vlad Tenev hosting a video call at 5:00 PM ET.
Analysts expect revenue of $1.34 billion (up 32% year-over-year) but EPS of $0.63, down 38% from the prior-year quarter as expenses surge.
If guidance disappoints or fails to address crypto volatility risk, expect further downside. Support sits near $85; resistance is $105.
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